Fermi estimation is the practice of using quick calculations and rough generalizations to estimate values.
When reading news or facts we often hear lots of numbers and values. Instead of taking them as face-value, try to apply Fermi estimation.
- Divide into subproblems. This will help getting a more accurate result as it is very unlikely that we have a consistent bias on a series of unique sub-problems.
- Focus on the most important parts. Reducing the variables reduces the complexity and can lead to more accurate solutions
See also
- Reality has a surprising amount of detail - interesting read about how difficult is reality
- Correcting Intuitive Predictions means regressing toward the mean proportionally to the evidence correlation - making your estimations regress towards the mean
- Hindsight Bias, after the outcome we believe we knew it all along and cannot recall our prior belifs - updating your intuitive view of the world makes you forget that the original