- Planning fallacy is just a manifestation of a more pervasive optimism bias
- mostly hereditary behaviour
- lots of benefits, but only for who don’t lose the real world view
- One of the benefits is the ability to persist in spite of obstacles, but persistence often comes at a high cost
- The optimistic risk of entrepreneurs risk contributes to the economic dynamism of capitalist society
- even though in most of the cases the courage is not rewarded
- explaining entrepreneurial optimism
- wishful thinking
- cognitive bias
- Planning fallacy
- ignoring other people’s plans and skills
- Illusion of control: we ignore luck’s role
- focus on what we know and ignore what we don’t know
- hybris
See also
- Planning Fallacy, we predict ideal scenarios instead of consulting distributional data — the planning fallacy is the most measurable manifestation of optimism bias: underestimated timelines are a direct, trackable prediction
- Inside View Uses Specific Details, Outside View Uses Base Rates — optimism bias is the emotional engine that makes us cling to the inside view even when the outside view contradicts it
- La Crescita è un Processo Iterativo senza Fine — the benefit of optimism bias is persistence; its cost is resisting the iterative update from wrong to less wrong
- Non possiamo eliminare i bias, possiamo solo riconoscere le situazioni a rischio — optimism bias is hereditary and pervasive; the mitigation is not elimination but recognition of high-stakes situations where it distorts decisions