2. Mental Models
Overview
Note
Some predictive judgements are formulated based on complex tables and analysis, while others rely on intuition and the system 1. On this second one, there are two subdivisions:
- Some are expert guesses based on experience
- Others, that are sometimes personally indistinguishable from expert ones, come from heuristics that switch with an easier question a harder question
Intuitive judgments are formulated with high certainty even when they are based on non-regressive valuations not based on proofs.
Take for example, trying to guess the GPA of a student based on the fact that she/he was a early reader. A high number of people will predict a high GPA, not taking in consideration other factors. To produce a non-distorted prediction, follow this framework:
- start with an initial prediction of the average GPA
- determine the GPA that you got from the proofs
- evaluate the correlation between your proofs and the GPA
- if the correlation is 0.30, move 30% of the average towards the correspondent GPA This framework will moderate your prediction making it regress towards the mean.