2. Mental Models
Overview
Definition
In any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones
Kahnemann was watching men’s ski jump, and recalled the commentator saying:
Norway had a great first jump; he will be tense, hoping to protect his lead and will probably do worse” or “Sweden had a bad first jump and now he knows he has nothing to lose and will be relaxed, which should help him do better.
The story could be true, but it must be remembered that it doesn’t need a causality story for the difference between the first and the second jump