Overview
- cognitive bias resulting in predicting short timeframes for planned projects
- describe plans that:
- are not realistically close to ideal scenarios
- could be improved by looking at statistical data
- relates to the inside view
- the error arises from not considering distributional informations
- how to mitigate (reference class forecasting)
- identify an appropriate reference class
- get statistical data from the reference class and use them to generate a priori prediction
- adjust the prediction by using specific information for the case
- similar to